Thursday, September 13, 2012

Do Facebook Likes Translate to Actual Software Sales?


Because this is mostly directed at the Facebook-based Get Me Off the Moon campaign (aka 100,000 Strong for Mega Man Legends 3), I though this was worth sharing.  On Ask Capcom, user Metal asked if there's any correlation between a game's Facebook "likes" and prospectful sales. Corporate Officer Christian Svensson stepped in to provide some insight:

"In my opinion, they can be an indicator of interest (one of many... presales being a much better indicator). I think it's fair to say that a low number of likes or Twitter followers or G+ circles would indicate not a lot of interest in said title. Now, does a high number of any/all of the above mean sales success is assured? Is there a way to broadly correlate Facebook likes to sales revenue? Absolutely not.

There's still a sizable gap between the investment required by someone to click "a thumbs up" than to reach in their wallet and buy a product.

The indicators aren't without value, but it's a temperature read. Nothing more, nothing less."

In other words, likes are not the de facto indicator. There's some value in them, but they don't translate to software sales. Variables like pre-order data tell Capcom that there is a stronger correlation between sales and profit. Facebook likes, Twitter followers, and Google+ Circles cannot be held in the same regard.

By no means does this belittle the efforts of Get Me Off the Moon. The likes generated by the campaign has, at the very least, vocalized an interest in the product... more so than initially perceived by those original Devroom numbers. So long as the group continues to grow and pump out products of support (i.e., the tribute album, the model rocket and so on), I think Capcom will continue to be mindful that there are people out there who want to see this thing realized.

Source: Ask Capcom

30 comments:

  1. You guys still want to pretend Sven is our best friend forever or are you going to realize he's at the end of the day just a PR guy?

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  2. Be quiet, anon. He's the only man left at Capcom US that actually cares.

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  3. I'll buy a Megaman game when they make an actual Megaman game. Except for EXE or RnR, I've bought almost every Megaman since X4.
    X1, X4, X5, X6, X8, 8, 9, MMXC, MMXCM, MMAC, MMZ1, MMZ3, MML1, MMZX, MMZXA.
    I'd love a 3rd Legends game, but the fact that it's on a 3DS really is a barrier, since I'd have to buy that system, meanwhile a WiiU, PSV, or PS3 would actually be a Multmedia device that I could see myself buying, not just for the games. If I end up buying a 3DS and Legends 3 does come out I'll try to buy it new, but I can't see myself getting a 3DS for what is only my third least favourite Megaman series.

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  4. I think the model rocket person just took everyone's money and ran.


    We haven't heard a single thing about that in how long now.

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  5. The problem is, the group isn't growing and they've done pretty much nothing in terms of getting a response out of Capcom Japan on IF the game is even possible to revive.
    They've literally been stuck at 108K likes for months now(at one point going up to 109K only to drop back down again), and the only time anything is ever said about the game is from Capcom USA which is still just doing damage control and spewing corporate bullshit to calm everyone down.
    It also hasn't helped that a lot of people that joined the group later on think that it's the official Capcom page for reviving the project, and they though by liking the page and getting others to do so that Capcom would bring the game back as soon as we hit 100,000 likes. Which was never the case.

    The Rocket, the concept album, the random contest. None of it's actually gotten anything done. If they want to do it, yeah that's fine, have fun. But other than keeping the fans busy, it's not accomplishing anything as far as getting this game back.
    And I'm sorry, but Reika Morishita is just capitalizing on the fans by re-releasing these songs. She knows everyone on the Facebook page will buy those tracks, and that combined with the false rumor that was spread initially that buying these would possibly convince Capcom to bring the game back(gee, I wonder where that rumor came from), she's just cashing in on the fans misery in the nicest way possible.

    I'm not saying give up on the game, I want it as much as everyone else. But if we really want this game back, we're going to have to work a lot harder than this and quit going easy on Capcom. Because right now, I've pretty much given up on 100,000 ever doing anything productive anyway.

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  6. @Purple Winds

    This image of our work-in-progress Rocket says "Hi, there! Start paying more attention." :P

    https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/551930_353831844691063_1977512916_n.jpg

    As one of the managers of the GMOTM movement, I can vouch for its authenticity.

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  7. Skybane, I agree, your "work" does say, "Hey, look at me!".

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  8. Cynicism so thick you could slice it with a light saber.
    Of course, that's not to say it's unjustified cynicism, but all the same, it's not getting anybody anywhere positive.

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  9. Yes, because there's just so much to be positive about, now isn't there?

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  10. Not surprising in the least. I mean, I've always been skeptical of the facebook likes.

    And even then, I never had a facebook to begin with and still can't be bothered to get one.

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  11. Being positive obviously hasn't gotten us very far, Captain.

    We should have stayed angry about this.
    We should have put more and more pressure on Capcom and not let up.
    We should have been boycotting every series/product they produce that wasn't Mega Man related.
    We shouldn't have let them weasel their way out of giving us a straight answer and we shouldn't have let them shove all this PR crap down our throats to distract us while the execs at Capcom Japan hid in a hole somewhere so they didn't have to deal with us.

    Instead, we had the guys over 100,000 telling us not to get angry and not to boycott other series that have nothing to do with Mega Man. Like being nice to Capcom is going to suddenly bring the game back.
    These people only speak one language: money.
    You hit 'em where it hurts, in the wallet, and they'll listen to you.

    But we didn't do that, and now we've lost what little momentum we had at the beginning when everyone was still riled up and we still COULD have done something about all this. But no one in the group wants to talk about this kind of stuff now, because everyone is content sitting on their hands waiting for something to happen and literally nothing is happening.

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  12. He's right.

    Where were all these people during the Devroom's heyday?

    The fact is, most of them are probably just hipsters, "nerds" and "hardcore gamers" who want to seem cool for liking something older. I'm sure half of them had never even heard of Legends before then, or if they did it was through (Marth Debuted In Smash Bros) Tron in MVC3. That, or someone who was genuinely hurt by the game's cancellation had a facebook friend/relative who liked it just because they did.

    In short, facebook groups and likes most certainly do not translate into sales. The new releases of "Another Sun" and "Your Wind Is Blowing" involve forking over some money, and we've gotten hints that'll actually do something, so that's more likely to get results.

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  13. I don't think it translates to actual sales, people can make multiple accounts just to like something if they're desperate enough to show that there is ''support'' for something.

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  14. Oh boy...

    The rage of the MM fanbase over Legends 3's death still goes on.

    That 100,000 be strong thing is for nothing. Capcom has won this war and we have to wait and see what happens next...

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  15. With the next generation of gaming bearing down on us, it might be better to focus on the next big leap for Mega Man.

    I've always wanted to see a game that is to the X franchise what X was to Mega Man. And, no, I don't mean MM Zero with that freak art style and convoluted plot. I mean taking all the fundamentals that made the NES games great and expanding on them in a way that doesn't water down the fun.

    I think Egoraptor emphasized it far better than I ever could in his X review, but X1 was lightning in a bottle. And I wouldn't have thought classic Mega Man was still possible in this dull age of gaming, but 9 & 10 proved me wrong.

    I still wonder, though, if there should be more Mega Man games without Inafune to keep things right. Left unchecked, Mega Man games could sink into Sonic The Hedgehog levels of crappiness.

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  16. Sven doesn't care about about a lot of things so idk were some people think he's on our side. I don't say that because of of this article because it does make sense what he is saying. I'm talking about the things at the capcom forums regarding to final fight drm or just answers back to fans in a rude way and not professional at all.

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  17. Can people just let the Legends 3 fiasco die already?

    While I'd really love to see a new Mega Man game (specifically anything ZX or Star Force related)... oh wait, there is going to be a new game. Problem solved.

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  18. One thing Capcom fails to realize is that the game would have done fine in the marketplace. If the Prototype version was released to garner interest, then maybe they would have gotten a better estimate for their vague criteria before release. Another thing is that at the time it would have been released, it would have been a bigger game a lot of 3DS owners and fans alike would have gotten a hold of. It was something fresh, new, and didn't have stiff competition yet. As time goes on, it does. Kid Icarus, Kingdom Hearts. Now that's not to say it still can't make an impression in the market place. It's just...I don't even know why I'm still talking potential and estimate here, lol.

    Capcom are fuckin' idiots for not allowing the game to be completed. End of story. It would have done just fine, not an iota of doubt in my mind. I believe it still will. Hopefully it gets reinstated down the line so they can see that.

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  19. @ MegaMac: Your comment pretty much confirmed you are a rabid fanboy. Y'know, the whole "fuk u crapcomlol!!1!!1" statement at the end.

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  20. zerker, your a idiot who can't accept other peoples opinions.

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  21. @Zerker: This may seem rather harsh, but since previous arguments have proven that you won't listen to anyone but yourself, I'll just say this:

    You are an empathetic black hole.

    And if you're not, then you still brush off any and all arguments or statements that don't match your opinion exactly with "you're a rabid fanboy and I'm implicitly better than you".

    Not once have I seen you properly refute a point, or explain why people should care about Xover beyond "it's not out yet". You think that people shouldn't still be angry about MML3's cancellation just because an arbitrary amount of time has passed (for reference, we still don't know why it was cancelled, and IIRC no one at Capcom has properly apologized for any of the backlash that followed).

    Apparently, because YOU didn't care about Legends, and since YOU are excited for Xover, we ALL have to be, and if we don't conform to your opinions, we're horrible people.

    Even if I could put things out of mind more easily, I got tired of dealing with and reading the comments of people like you long before I wrote this. No matter what they were saying or what the subject was, it was always the same thing: "You're less of a person because you disagree with me". It got old VERY quickly.

    I noticed them a while before MML3 bit it, but then was when they seemed to come out in full force. Months and months of that bullshit; emotional exhaustion is not a pleasant experience. Surely I'm not the only one who feels this way.

    I implore you to think about what others have said to you here on PRC (and any other place whose posters called you out on your behaviour), because I assure you--if you don't, all people will remember you for is shrieking at other people over a matter that is probably not that big a factor in their lives (we'll unleash our rage unto the Internet because other people will listen and discuss it with us, but ultimately, things like MML3's cancellation and whatnot do not dominate every single nanosecond of our waking hours).


    ...on-topic, I guess that "likes" don't automatically correlate to sales, but it kinda feels like we were just told that our opinions were worthless. :/

    As for boycotting--well, if it works and Capcom runs out of series to make games of and their only logical choice is Megaman...there's no guarantee that they'll go with that choice. I guess it'd be worth it if there's no longer a Capcom to nearly overwork their employees into comas (see: Ono), though, even if it means losing MM.

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  22. the real problem is that even if it was just to gauge interest, one hundred thousand isn't enough even if all of them DID buy the game. and even then it took 9 months and paid ads to do so. which really just reaffirms that there isn't interest in the series/game and that it's cancellation was mostly justified.

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  23. ...Zerker is a rabid Xover fanb-errr girl. Haaaah, see how I spun that? And gee, maybe Rockman Xover should be cancelled just to show how we feel about Legends and, to a lesser extent, Universe. But otherwise, everything that RADIX has already said. And Zerker, if your posts are supposed to be some sort of trolling attempt, then please try harder. They've been pretty pathetic so far.

    Also, in regards to the new cover songs, yeah it's pretty doubtful that those will help either. But I wouldn't call the 'promises' outright 'lies' or that Reika Morishita is "just doing it to suck money out of us". It's more like an empty promise sure, but I wouldn't call it a lie. And frankly, even then, purchasing covers at least still DOES something unlike clicking a like button. Anyone can be willing to click a like button in seconds as already explained, but not everyone is willing to purchase a song in seconds. So even if the covers don't help in the slightest, it's frankly still better and more practical than liking a facebook page.

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  24. @ 6:32 Anon, RADIX, Dr. Jerk: When did I call anyone state I don't agree with someone's opinion (on this post)?

    If you're going to criticize my actions even when I post something as simple as "can we just let the Legends 3 fiasco die", then maybe you need some time out from the internet.

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  25. The same can be said for the number of Servbots in the Devroom. So I wonder... What is this "criteria" that wasn't met? Something inside Capcom?

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  26. September 14, 2012 11:00 PM Anon: "Justified"? Not really.

    As a friend of mine pointed out, the Prototype Version would've been the only real (non-port) game in the 3DS's eShop for about five months. It'd be kinda hard to miss or pass up, whether you were an MM fan or not.

    Capcom didn't seem to realize that and apparently based their sales predictions on the Devroom numbers--keep in mind that when the Devroom was opened, they told us that it was okay to lurk.

    I say "apparently" because we still don't know why it was cancelled; to this day, our only real hint is what that one troglodyte on CoE's twitter said (and even then, maybe it wasn't a hint and he was just a victim-blaming asshat).

    Besides, Sven just said that Facebook "likes" don't automatically mean sales. On the on hand...yeah, I guess "likes" aren't really reliable here.

    On the other hand, maybe there's many more people who're angry over MML3's cancellation, but don't have Facebook accounts (and don't want to create one just to "like" a single group).


    'sides, wouldn't the smart thing to do with MML3 be to actually release it? After all, you've sunk quite a bit of money into it, the dev team is enthusiastic about making it, and you've got tons of fans backing the project up to boot (hell, they're even able to submit ideas and vote on what designs are chosen).

    If the project is completed and the game is a good one, then you've proven to everyone that you can handle this kind of fan input responsibly, PLUS you got more money back than you put into the game, since its demo was the only thing on the eShop for months.

    ...but no. Capcom thought that PR suicide was better for them in the long run than just completing the game. No wonder people think that they only cancelled it to spite Inafune.


    This comment turned out longer than intended. :/

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  27. Chill guys, and girl. Let's wait and see if... (1 year later) Nevermind. It's like seeing your ship with a small hole and sit, waiting for it to go away, someone close it or the hole close itself instead of doing something about it before the ship sinks.

    @RADIX: Agree. Also:
    "On the other hand, maybe there's many more people who're angry over MML3's cancellation, but don't have Facebook accounts (and don't want to create one just to "like" a single group)."
    Here is one (sorry Miss Tron...)

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  28. @Zerker: It's not that I criticize your wishes for the "Legends 3 fiasco fad" to die. In many ways, I too am kind of also getting tired of seeing the dead horse being beat around.

    It's your goddamn attitude towards everyone that is pissing off people here, and how you cannot respect the opinions of others if they're not your own. We've been trying to explain this to you for awhile now and you still don't get it. You're the one who needs a time out. Quit acting like the world revolves around you. It does not.

    But ohhh, what am I saying? Zerker doesn't listen to anyone here, not even their valid arguments.

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  29. You know what would be a strong indicator, Sven? The Mega Man Legends 3 Prototype! Release it on eShop and see how big the interest is. You can't just say you don't believe in a product without testing it. Have faith in the fans.

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  30. facebook likes do not equal the amount a game will sell, that's a load of crap because there are a ton of megaman fans that don't even bother with facebook and not everyone has one or wants one.

    the only way to have properly guaged interest in legends 3 would have been to, you know release the prototype version of the 3ds e-shop capcom. considering they canned the prototype that was supposed to be used to see how much interest in the game capcom will never know how much legends 3 would have sold because they never gave it a chance.

    it just feels like a slap in the face towards the mm fanbase that they can cancel legends 3 but develops shovelware crap like xover? that is a huge load of crap, we all know capcom has the money to make a quality megaman game but their too busy spending it on all of these new ip's they keep creating. the point is they will never know if legends 3 would have sold or not because they never gave the prototype a chance.

    and before zerker flames me for no reason for this post, I dont want to hear it and I don't care what you have to say about my opinion.

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